Having peaked at 6.50 (5.5 to one) last weekend, the odds on a Coalition win in the State Election shortened a little this week coming in to 4.50.

Yet, in seat by seat betting the Coalition seems to be further from victory than ever. One important building block for a Labor success on Saturday week is retaining all its own seats. Its odds have shortened in several of them with examples including Buninyong (1.19 to 1.08), Cranbourne (1.30 to 1.12) and Geelong (1.40 to 1.15). Even the most vulnerable notionally Labor seat Macedon now has Labor’s candidate Mary-Ann Thomas at 1.40. And the four Labor incumbents, whose seats are notionally Liberal post-redistribution, are all now at short odds to be returned.

On the other side of the pendulum, the Galaxy Poll which showed the Liberals on 52% in Bentleigh saw the odds of a Liberal win there shorten. You can still back the Liberals at 2.80, however, so clearly the majority of punters didn’t find the poll convincing. There also been a little bit of support for the Liberals in Carrum this week and any fears of losing Burwood also seem to have evaporated.

What is remarkable about the odds at this stage is that there are only two seats, Forest Hill and South Barwon, where the odds are close. The punters seem to have settled on the ALP finishing between 48 and 50, while the Coalition will get between 38 and 40 seats.

The one other variable for Labor is the electorate of Melbourne where the Greens are rated between a 2.50 and a 2.75 chance of picking up the seat, despite the Liberals preferencing against them. Another seat where a non-major party candidate is given a chance is Morwell where Independent Tracie Lund, running under the banner of Latrobe Valley First is rated between a 4.50 and 6.00 chance. Her presence in the field also means that despite the notionally very safe margin for National Party Minister Russell Northe, Labor are into as short as 2.70 with one agency to land a seat that would very much be in the icing on the cake category for them.

And for anyone bored with just looking at the odds on the overall winner or seat-by-seat, there are now a few exotic bets being offered. Our favourite here at The Agenda Group is the one where punters can pick one of five time periods when the first toilet will be flushed at Southland station.