About Richard Allsop

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So far Richard Allsop has created 8 blog entries.

Election results wrap


The results of the State Election ended up being largely in accordance with the opinion polls and the betting odds. As expected, the ALP did not lose any of the seats on its side of the pendulum to the Coalition and picked up the four other marginals with Labor incumbents, which had become notionally Liberal [...]

Election results wrap2014-12-04T12:16:59+00:00

Victoria – a Labor state?


Many people have speculated why a first term government is in such danger of losing this Saturday night. Perhaps the simplest explanation is that, all other things being equal, Victoria is a naturally Labor state. Yet, Victoria was once considered the jewel in the crown of the Liberal Party. Not only did the Liberals hold [...]

Victoria – a Labor state?2014-11-28T10:50:20+00:00

What the bookies think (election eve)


Having shortened a little in the penultimate week of the campaign, the punters have deserted the Coalition in the final week. The odds of a Coalition have returned to the price they were after the second week around the 5.50 mark. In the seat-by-seat betting there has been a trend where both major parties have [...]

What the bookies think (election eve)2014-11-28T00:02:32+00:00

Victorian state election 2014: what the bookies think


Having peaked at 6.50 (5.5 to one) last weekend, the odds on a Coalition win in the State Election shortened a little this week coming in to 4.50. Yet, in seat by seat betting the Coalition seems to be further from victory than ever. One important building block for a Labor success on Saturday week [...]

Victorian state election 2014: what the bookies think2014-11-21T11:05:42+00:00

Making sense of the Upper House


In 2010 the Coalition sprang a major surprise by not just winning in the Legislative Assembly but also by gaining control of the Legislative Council. The Coalition gained three seats from Labor (in Northern Metropolitan, Southern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan) and also picked up a seat which the Democratic Labor Party won in Western Victoria [...]

Making sense of the Upper House2014-11-21T08:09:30+00:00

What the bookies think


If the bookies' odds are to be believed, Labor has strengthened its electoral position in the first two weeks of the formal campaign. The odds of the Government holding power, which varied a moderate amount between 3.50 and 4.75 ten days ago, reached a consensus yesterday - the Coalition was a 5.00 chance. The odds [...]

What the bookies think2014-11-14T10:50:53+00:00

Choosing the Right Rail Projects


Anyone with the slightest interest in the transport sector knows that State Governments around Australia face enormous challenges paying for transport infrastructure projects. Yet, even before grappling with the challenges of finding funding, there is the basic challenge of selecting which are the most worthwhile projects to pursue. A few years ago, many in the [...]

Choosing the Right Rail Projects2011-11-02T04:39:03+00:00

So what if my seven-year-old son understands the mathematics of gambling?


  There is nothing more irritating in a debate than when a particular point is constantly made on the basis that, to its users, it is so self-evident that no further discussion is required. A current example is the issue of sports betting, when the perceived clincher in many letters and comments is a reference [...]

So what if my seven-year-old son understands the mathematics of gambling?2011-08-19T06:07:07+00:00